• Follow us

Politics

Contradictory polls agree on one thing: Dwight Ball's Liberals are in trouble | CBC News

Liberal Leader Dwight Ball entered the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election as the frontrunner.

He might now be entering the campaign's final week as the underdog.

Over three days, three polls were published — each offering a different picture of the race. One showed Ball and the Liberals with a commanding lead, while another gave Ches Crosbie's Progressive Conservatives a healthy edge. The third also gave the nod to Crosbie, though by a narrow margin.

But the numbers might not be as contradictory as they appear to be at first glance.

The first poll to be published was by MQO Research, showing the Liberals with 48 per cent support among decided voters against just 36 per cent for the PCs. The New Democrats trailed in third with 11 per cent, while another five per cent of respondents said they'd vote for the NL Alliance or independent candidates.

Then, Abacus Data showed the PCs with 42 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 37 per cent and the NDP at 15 per cent. Another six per cent said they'd vote for other candidates.

Finally, Forum Research emerged with a tight two-point margin, the PCs edging out the Liberals 42 to 40 per cent. The NDP came up third with 13 per cent and others had six per cent.

Considering the margins of error — roughly three to four points based on Forum's sample of 856 eligible voters and Abacus's sample of 700 people — there isn't much that separates the Forum and Abacus polls. They both suggest that the race is competitive, with the PCs holding the advantage.

PC Leader Ches Crosbie and Liberal Leader Dwight Ball clash during a discussion about rate mitigation and the Muskrat Falls project during the televised leaders debate at the Here & Now studio in St. John's. (CBC)

The polls' field dates were pretty close together as well. Forum was polling on May 3 and 4, while Abacus was in the field between May 2 and 5. MQO, however, was polling from Apr. 25 to May 4 — work that was mostly done before the May 1 leaders debate.

That could explain the significant difference between the MQO poll and those by Forum and Abacus. It isn't that the polls contradict each other. It's that the complexion of the race may be shifting in Crosbie's favour.

That's what MQO's own data suggest. Though the sample sizes were small, MQO found the Liberals with a 15-point lead over the PCs before the leaders debate. After the debate, that lead was down to just three points.

West is red, central is blue, St. John's is the toss-up

The polls give a good indication of where each of the parties have their pockets of strength. All three found the Liberals leading in Labrador and in western Newfoundland — the only parts of the province where the Liberals won seats after they were reduced to six MHAs in the 2011 election, and where their candidates put up monster margins of victory in 2015.

In the Abacus and Forum polls, the PCs had the advantage in central and eastern Newfoundland, leading by 11 points according to Forum and nine points according to Abacus. The PCs won only a single district in this region four years ago.

The race appears to be closer on the Avalon Peninsula, though there is less agreement on how exactly it's shaping up there. Both MQO and Forum gave the Liberals statistically insignificant leads there, while Abacus gave a more comfortable 10-point margin to the PCs. All three surveys found the NDP with its strongest results there — not surprising, considering the party is running most of its candidates in and around St. John's.

It does raise the question of where NDP votes will go in the rest of the province, where support for the New Democrats ranged from five to 12 per cent. Those will largely be orphaned votes, as the NDP is only running three candidates outside of the Avalon Peninsula.

Was it the debate, or something else?

It is difficult to determine exactly what's behind the changing tide in this election. Political observers spotted little that suggested the debate was a turning point in the race. The Forum poll even found that more debate watchers thought Ball won the debate than Crosbie.

But it's undeniable that voters in Newfoundland and Labrador are disgruntled — and the incumbent is taking the hit.

According to MQO, just 13 per cent of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians think the general outlook in the province has gotten better in the last three months, compared to 41 per cent who say it has gotten worse.

By a margin of 66 to 34 per cent, respondents to the Forum poll said that the province has gotten worse rather than better over the last four years.

And Abacus found that two-thirds of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians — including a majority of people who voted for the Liberals in 2015 — think that a change is needed. On the top issue of the economy — which two-thirds said is in poor shape — voters said they thought the PCs would do a better job of handling it than the Liberals by a margin of three points.

In the face of all this, Ball's saving grace may be that the population isn't quite warming up to Crosbie. Forum found more people disapproving of both Ball and Crosbie than approving of them. According to Abacus, 28 per cent of voters have a positive impression of Ball, compared to 27 per cent for Crosbie.

Still, more people are unhappy with Ball than with Crosbie — Abacus found 41 per cent with a negative view of the Liberal leader, compared to 30 per cent for Crosbie.

It's a bad time to be slumping in the polls, with just six days to go before the election. A lot of voters remain undecided, though, and with the margins as tight as they appear to be, that could be enough time for the Liberals to flip things back again. Crosbie's relatively soft numbers make that a definite possibility.

But this is turning out to be a more interesting election than it looked to be at the outset. For Dwight Ball, boring and predictable would have been better.

Read More



Leave A Comment

More News

: Politics

Updates to the Privacy Act coming as feds 2019-05-21 14:02:00Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains says the federal government will look to update the Privacy Act as part of an effort to build greater trust in the d

Canadian government aims to boost tourism by 25 2019-05-21 12:23:37A new Canadian tourism strategy is meant to help boost international visits to Canada during non-peak seasons.

Trudeau says Chinese aggression ‘not something we need 2019-05-21 12:08:18The statement comes as a Canadian parliamentary delegation is in China and is pushing for the release of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor.

House panel releases transcripts of closed-door interviews with 2019-05-20 19:41:18The transcripts are from interviews the panel conducted with Cohen in February and March. The House Intelligence Committee voted to release them 12-7.

North Korea calls U.S. ‘a gangster country,’ urges 2019-05-20 19:19:01North Korea said in a letter to the U.N. that the Trump administration committed "an unlawful and outrageous act" by taking over the ship Wise Hones

Video scandal causes far-right ministers to withdraw from 2019-05-20 18:53:59Two German newspapers published video of the leader of far-right Freedom Party appearing to offer favours to a purported Russian investor.

Controversy grows over PEI government’s treatment of long-time 2019-05-20 18:03:34They were awarded as outstanding foster parents in New Brunswick but, after moving, and continuing to foster in Prince Edward Island, they say they'v

Trial in challenge to new restrictive abortion laws 2019-05-20 17:25:24The laws being challenged include a physician-only measure that bars nurse practitioners and physician’s assistants from performing abortions.

Betsy DeVos used personal email for government business: 2019-05-20 16:24:50In total, investigators said they identified six emails sent by DeVos on private accounts, including five that involved official agency business. The

‘Restricted to a limited space’: Huawei CFO house 2019-05-20 15:52:02Meng Wanzhou's said she is "restricted to a limited space" when referring to her house arrest, which drew immediate comparison between her conditio

Liberals achieve gender parity in new appointments, but 2019-05-20 14:41:39Documents from the Privy Council Office obtained through the access-to-information law, show that as of last year, 55.5 per cent of appointees to fede

Ukrainian TV star Volodymyr Zelenskiy sworn in as 2019-05-20 11:48:09Volodymyr Zelenskiy justified his contentious decision to dissolve the parliament on the grounds it has become a hotbed of self-enrichment.

CBC | Politics News

Steel and aluminum tariffs are gone, so now 2019-05-20 08:23:15Steel and aluminum from Canada will no longer be taxed, but that doesn't mean all the problems are over. The new NAFTA still has to be ratified,

How the Liberals spent the week blaming everyone 2019-05-20 04:00:00The fallout from Vice-Admiral Mark Norman's criminal case has seen the Trudeau Liberals deploy the popular political tactic of throwing people under

What's on your mind, Canada? Your MP wants 2019-05-19 16:00:00The 2019 federal election campaign is already underway. The CBC News Canada Votes newsletter is your weekly tip sheet as we count down to October 21.

Revamped citizenship guide still a work in progress 2019-05-19 04:00:00A promised overhaul of Canada’s citizenship guide remains a work in progress with just months left in the Liberal mandate, leaving a current gui

'Full steam ahead' on trade deal now that 2019-05-18 10:26:14Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is going "full steam ahead" with ratifying the new NAFTA trade deal now that met

With Trudeau's leadership under fire, Liberals try to 2019-05-18 04:00:43Federal and provincial Liberals who spoke to CBC News concede what was unthinkable just months ago — that in the wake of the SNC-Lavalin controv

Texts, ads and leaders: How party strategists work 2019-05-18 04:00:00As October approaches, the federal parties are refining their plans to win votes. The official campaign period won’t kick off until after the su

What didn't happen in the N.L. election — 2019-05-18 04:00:00The PCs didn't win and the NDP didn't tank - and other interesting non-results from the N.L election.

Parliament Hill excavation uncovers pre-Confederation military complex 2019-05-18 04:00:00Buried beneath the flowers, trees and statues dotting the grounds of Parliament Hill are the remnants of a military complex that predates both Co

'It was my decision and my responsibility': Vance 2019-05-17 17:17:38The country's top military commander said there was no political input into his decision to suspend Vice-Admiral Mark Norman from his post over two y

'Typical Liberal desperation': Scheer insists he won't reopen 2019-05-17 15:48:50Andrew Scheer is moving to shut down the Liberals' new line of attack after several of his MPs attended an anti-abortion rally and some American

Postmedia hires former Kenney chief of staff to 2019-05-17 14:14:25Postmedia has hired Alberta Premier Jason Kenney’s former chief of staff to lobby the new United Conservative government on how how it could be

Breitbart News

O'Rourke: 'We Need to Look at' Mandatory Licensing 2019-05-21 23:43:54During a town hall on CNN on Tuesday, 2020 Democratic presidential candidate former Congressman Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) stated that “we need

Exclusive – Sean Spicer: Huawei, the Threat that 2019-05-21 22:55:29Last week, President Trump signed an executive order effectively barring Chinese telecom giant Huawei from doing business in the United States.

Exclusive – Phyllis Schlafly’s Handpicked Successor Calls for 2019-05-21 22:43:31Ed Martin, President of Phyllis Schlafly Eagles and handpicked successor to Phyllis Schlafly, called for the RNC to officially censure Justin Ama

California Farms Hike U.S. Wages, Increasingly Use Automation 2019-05-21 21:54:32California farms are hiking wages for U.S. workers and increasingly relying on automation and robots thanks to a shortage of foreign workers in Presid

Iran Dismisses Trump’s ‘Genocidal Taunts,’ Blames U.S. for 2019-05-21 21:10:14Iranian officials responded with anger and derision to President Donald Trump’s Sunday warning on Twitter that “if Iran wants to fight, th

Peter Schweizer: Hunter Biden Was 'Stuffing His Pockets 2019-05-21 21:09:17Peter Schweizer explained how Hunter Biden made business deals in China and Ukraine while Joe Biden "steered" foreign policy.

Robert ‘Beto’ O’Rourke Makes Bid for Fox Town 2019-05-21 21:01:13Democrat 2020 hopeful Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke said Monday he would “absolutely” do a Fox News town hall but didn&

Xi Jinping's Rare Earth Visit Highlights Weak Spot 2019-05-21 20:48:52China is prepared to use its domination of raw materials used in virtually all high-tech manufacturing to gain leverage in the trade dispute.

Fitton: Bruce Ohr and State Department Official Kavalec 2019-05-21 20:35:04Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs Kathleen Kavalec and former Associate Deputy Attorney Gener

Study: Tariff on All Chinese Imports Would Create 2019-05-21 20:20:58A 25 percent tariff on all imported goods from China would create more than 720,000 American jobs by 2024, a new study finds. 

NBC’s Chuck Todd Decrees: Only Candidates Media Deem 2019-05-21 20:19:29NBC political director and Meet the Press host Chuck Todd said he believes political candidates must "prove that they're worthy of coverage" f

MS-13 Illegal Aliens Charged with Murdering Teen Girl 2019-05-21 20:08:35Two illegal alien members of the violent MS-13 gang have been charged with the murder of a 14-year-old girl in Maryland after previously being release

Politics – Macleans.ca

‘We were five votes away from a majority:’ 2019-05-17 18:21:37The Liberal premier says his party has heard voters' plea for politicians to 'work together.' Also, he denies his leadership is in jeopardy The pos

What does Conrad Black see in Donald Trump? 2019-05-17 16:47:11Stephen Maher: The things that trouble many conservatives about the U.S. president seemed to genuinely pose no problem for the now pardoned Black The

China’s offensive on Canada, in plain sight 2019-05-17 15:34:46Terry Glavin: Huawei is a key weapon in Beijing’s global economic and political ambitions. The Liberals are playing a dangerous game pretending

With abortion rights under attack, women are left 2019-05-17 13:33:28Tabatha Southey finds a small antidote to a growing chorus of mean and petty policy designed to make women's lives more difficult The post With abort

Conviction is inevitable for Canadians charged with espionage 2019-05-17 07:00:06Politics Insider for May 17: China's 'unacceptable' espionage charges, Alabama abortion fallout and Scheer's economic plan The post Conviction is

In Newfoundland, a razor-close election that nobody really 2019-05-16 20:34:03A province in dire need of stable government instead gets a minority, and a likely return to the polls in the near future The post In Newfoundland, a

Newfoundland and Labrador election 2019: Live results 2019-05-16 13:45:40Voters in Newfoundland and Labrador cast their ballots Thursday in what pollsters predicted would be a neck-and-neck contest between the incumbent Lib

Alabama is closer than we think 2019-05-15 20:53:27Anne Kingston: Canadians who reassure themselves that the southern state's abortion ban couldn't possibly ever happen here haven't been paying atte

Canadians are primed for some Trump-style populism 2019-05-15 16:52:18A new survey finds half of Canadians are open to populism given their distrust of government and fear of being left behind—and it's a right-of-

Think your election choice is tough? Try being 2019-05-15 15:17:24With debt piling up and the economy in shambles, the parties seem unable to distinguish themselves for Thursday's election. No wonder it's too close

Liberals and NDP race to out-green each other 2019-05-15 07:00:32Politics Insider for May 15: An apology for Norman, what Ontario Liberal MPs want, and steel tariff talks resume The post Liberals and NDP race to ou

If elections are about the economy, what will 2019-05-14 15:43:39Paul Wells: Chambers and Councils of Canadian capitalism seem unhappy with the Liberals—for reasons they can't quite seem to spell out The post

CTVNews.ca - Politics -

Trudeau's action plan on climate change brings B.C. 2019-05-22 01:47:18Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party's action plan on climate change has brought one former British Columbia politician out of retirement and back in

Federal government to buy two more Arctic ships 2019-05-21 20:58:59Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to announce Wednesday that the federal government is buying two more Arctic patrol ships on top of the six i

Liberals shrugging off concerns about rural crime, opposition 2019-05-21 14:48:00Conservative MPs say a Liberal-dominated committee's half-hearted report on the burgeoning problem of rural crime is an insult to Canadians.

Minister Bains outlines digital charter with focus on 2019-05-21 13:16:00Federal Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains unveiled a wide review of privacy laws Tuesday in what he said was an effort to build trust in a digital wor

Ousted Saskatchewan NDP MP Erin Weir not running 2019-05-21 12:19:00Saskatchewan MP Erin Weir says he will be not be running in October's federal election. Weir issued a statement Tuesday saying he's not running beca

If Trudeau called about detainees, Chinese president wouldn't 2019-05-21 12:07:00A former Canadian ambassador to China says he has ‘limited expectations’ a Canadian delegation currently on the ground in China will succe

Fight over metals tariffs focused Cdn industries on 2019-05-21 11:51:00American tariffs on Canadian aluminum cut into profits but didn't slow production or hurt employment, says the CEO of the Quebec company whose plant

Tiny increase in young appointees to federal posts 2019-05-21 11:44:00Newly released documents show Liberal changes to the federal appointments system has yielded a small increase in the number of younger people getting

Feds launch tourism strategy designed to boost sector 2019-05-21 10:32:00A new Canadian tourism strategy is meant to help boost international visits to Canada during non-peak seasons by more than a million people and get vi

Trudeau credits immigration as key to Canada's growing 2019-05-20 19:58:00Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told hundreds of attendees at a conference in Toronto on Monday that Canada's thriving technology sector is a result of

Canadian retaliatory tariffs lifted as U.S. kills steel 2019-05-20 11:11:00Canada collected more than $1.27 billion from the retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products over the last year and all of it will go to the Canadian steel

More women, few minorities: Docs detail results of 2019-05-20 10:16:00The Liberal government's overhaul of the patronage system has led to gender parity in government appointments, but new figures show few of those wome


Disclaimer and Notice:WorldProNews.com is not responsible of these news or any information published on this website.